Markets shifted from two to three rate cuts to pricing a 2026 hike, as job growth beats Fed estimates and oil stays elevated.

MBA reports applications fell 8.5% as the 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.65%. Refinances fell 18% and purchase demand dipped 0.4%.

Markets pushed the 10-year yield up from 4.53% to 4.58% after Christopher Waller warned supply disruptions may continue.

Mortgage rates reached 6.75% as the 10-year yield hit 4.68%, with Iran, spreads, and Fed signals driving moves.

MBA veri show mortgage applications fell 2.3% as the 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.56% and the purchase index dropped 4%.

As inflation runs hotter and the 10-year yield hits a yearly high, improved spreads help keep rates under 6.64% and demand steady.