MBA says applications fell as the 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.65%, while the refinance index increased 4% and purchases fell 7%.

Inflation slowed in June amid a now-defunct Middle East ceasefire, casting doubt on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike next week.

Optimal Blue says June rate-lock volume rose 10% from May and 15% year over year, with purchase locks at 81% and rates near 6.45%.

With weaker jobs and lower oil prices, hawkish Federal Reserve members have less ammunition for multiple rate hikes in 2026.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remain a minority of total agency originations, but they have reemerged in 2026.

Mortgage applications rose 0.04% last week as purchase demand increased and refinance activity declined, MBA found.