The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking its fourth consecutive pause as it enters the Kevin Warsh era.

With oil at $75.80 and mortgage rates near 6.50%, housing is watching whether Warsh can keep the Fed patient on hikes.

Home sales are near 4.2 million, with lock-in preventing about 870,000 sales in 2026 and only about 5.8% decaying annually.

MBA says applications rose 10.8% week over week, with refinance applications up 15% and purchase applications up 7%.

Markets shifted from two to three rate cuts to pricing a 2026 hike, as job growth beats Fed estimates and oil stays elevated.

MBA reports applications fell 8.5% as the 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.65%. Refinances fell 18% and purchase demand dipped 0.4%.